Building a Portfolio - Backtesting and Forward Projection
• Backtesting with TradingView: Participants use the "Bar Replay" tool to recreate strategic work candle-by-candle.
• Management Delivery Audit: This involves analyzing the last four quarterly earnings to compare what management promised versus what they actually delivered.
• Forward-Look Forecasting: Using Google Sheets and historical data to generate linear trend projections for future performance.
References:
Read this first: https://www.sowmyvj.com/p/welcome-to-helix-research
Watch the recording of our preparatory session: https://youtu.be/nXil4JBpDsQ
Watch the recording of session 1 : Building a Portfolio - Factors affecting stock returns: If you attended the session, you should have access to the recording. If you don't, please email [email protected] requesting it.
Benefits:
• Removing Hindsight Bias: Backtesting candle-by-candle builds professional discipline and ensures strategies are tested against historical reality without the benefit of knowing what happened next.
• Assessing the Momentum (UMD) Factor: By quantifying the delta between management guidance and actual delivery, analysts can more accurately assess the stock's momentum and management credibility.
• Confidence Building: These exercises help build confidence in the potential of a strategy by observing its performance across various market conditions (bullish, bearish, or sideways).