AI, Jobs, and Development: Perspectives for and from the Rest of the World

​Much of the emerging research and debate on AI's effect on work draws on high-income labor markets, especially the United States. Yet around 85% of the world's working people live and work elsewhere, in smaller shops, in growing cities and rural regions, and in contexts where resources are tight and labor markets work very differently. What happens when AI-led economic transformation reaches those places? We don’t know much yet. And that needs to change.

​Bringing together economists, philanthropic leaders, and policymakers, we'll compare notes and think together about what rigorous evidence can, and should, tell us about how AI is changing the nature of work, the imaginaries and mechanics of industrial policy, and the paths to catch-up growth and better lives. For decades, growth has run through trade and industrial upgrading, moving workers from agriculture into export-led manufacturing and, more recently, into tradable services. AI may unsettle these canonical routes: automation could erode job-rich manufacturing and disrupt the offshore service sector many economies rely on, even as it opens new possibilities for productivity and scientific innovation. Long-standing questions about trade and industrial policy could look different in an age of AI, and we're curious to interrogate them together. Some questions we may discuss:

​● How is AI adoption affecting employment and productivity in developing economies, and how does this differ from high-income settings?

​● If automation narrows the familiar ladder from agriculture to manufacturing to tradable services, what, if anything, can take its place as an engine of jobs and growth?

​● The service work many economies rely on (IT, business-process outsourcing, call centers) is both highly tradable and highly automatable. How should countries, firms, and workers respond?

​● Is labor migration part of the answer, particularly as aging high-income countries face care shortages AI can't easily fill; what does that imply for building growth at home?

​● What role can industrial and innovation policy play as AI reshapes manufacturing and services?

​● What are the big missing evidence pieces that can add to a debate currently driven largely by forecasts, and what are some of the “dream research designs”?

​● And what partnerships can ensure that the resulting evidence reaches the policymakers who need it?

​Format: a short moderated roundtable followed by open networking over refreshments.

​Virtual participants may join us on zoom here: https://schmidtentities.zoom.us/j/95364512470?pwd=ZqBEVpSdGd7foVNnSIImwxpqlr254S.1&jst=3