Forecasting Social - Collab with CAISH x Ethics in Maths Soc
Forecasting Real-World Risks — A Social with EA Cambridge
How likely is it that an AI lab has its model weights stolen by 2035? That a pathogen kills 1% of humanity by 2050? That autonomous battle drones exist by 2040?
These aren't hypothetical thought experiments — they're real questions that professional forecasters and policymakers grapple with. This evening we'll tackle them together.
In small groups, you'll pick a question, dig into the evidence, and produce a probability estimate using the same techniques as superforecasters: reference class reasoning, breaking questions into parts, and comparing your intuitions against the data.
No prior experience needed. The goal isn't to get it right — it's to think more carefully about questions that actually matter.
Food provided.
What to expect:
Short intro to forecasting techniques (~15 mins)
Small group research and discussion (~45 mins)
Groups share estimates and reasoning (~20 mins)
Informal chat over food
Open to everyone. No EA background required.
More about Ethics in Maths Society:
Maurice Chiodo is an Assistant Research Professor at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge, and founder of the Ethics in Mathematics Project. Holding two PhDs in mathematics, his work addresses the ethical challenges and risks posed by mathematics, mathematicians, and mathematically-powered technologies such as AI.
The Ethics in Mathematics Project was set up in 2016 to deal with societal problems that require both a technical, and social, analysis, currently focusing on topics of AI risk. With over 20 active collaborators across disciplines such as mathematics, computer science, engineering, cryptography, law, history, political science, and philosophy, it is uniquely positioned to produce understanding and foresight in critical risk areas of society. A list of publications can be found at https://mauricechiodo.com/research (includes a top 2% ICLR paper).
The Ethics in Mathematics Society, also set up in 2016, is a place for students to come together to learn and talk about such ethical issues in mathematics. Alongside talks and fun socials, CUEiMS hosts two annual seminar series taught by Maurice. These are aimed at highlighting to students the risks that arise from mathematical work, and what can be done about these. (Mailing list + WhatsApp sign-up https://forms.gle/dRGymNdTovSaJuEc8).