The least understood (but most important) driver of AI progress

​Summary

​AI progress is driven not only by more compute but by better algorithms and data, i.e. “software progress”. As AI research gets increasingly automated, some hypothesise that AI capabilities could accelerate dramatically, in a "software intelligence explosion". To understand whether this is likely (or imminent), we first need to understand what AI software progress is and what drives it.

In this presentation, Anson Ho, Senior Researcher at Epoch AI, reviews what everyone in AI safety needs to know about AI software progress. He also discusses recent work to advance the public's understanding of software progress and recursive self-improvement, including third-party engagements with frontier labs.

​Format

​A 15-20 minute talk, followed by an extended Q&A. Come prepared with your questions!

​What we’ll cover

• ​What AI software progress is, and why it matters so much

• ​Whether recursive self-improvement is likely to lead to a software intelligence explosion

• ​What the world can do to better understand software progress and the chances of an imminent intelligence explosion

​Speaker Bio

​Anson Ho is a Senior Researcher at Epoch AI. He’s currently interested in tracking accelerations in AI R&D at frontier labs, and understanding whether recursive self-improvement is likely to lead to an intelligence explosion.