Cherry Blossom Season and Prediction Markets (w/ The AI Collective)
Cherry Blossoms & Prediction Markets: When Will They Bloom?
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
- Yogi Berra, maybe
High Park gets all the hype, but Centennial Park has better blossoms and a better experience. That's not a prediction; that's a guarantee.
We're taking a 7am Field Trip to Centennial to catch the cherry blossoms at peak bloom. The question: when?
To figure that out, we'll build a prediction market together. Live. Over Breakfast. Coffee. AI.
Requirements: before you can run a prediction market, you need a question good enough to bet on. Specific. Legible. Unambiguous to resolve. Harder than it sounds.
We'll workshop the key questions as a group:
What counts as "peak bloom"?
Who decides?
What's the resolution date?
What happens if it rains?
Once we have a question, we can create the prediction market. The market decides the date. Nature decides if we're right.
You'll leave with:
A working mental model of how prediction markets function and why most people get them wrong
Hard-won intuition for what makes a question resolvable
A full belly
An invite to our Field Trip with date determined by market forces 🌸
Note: Pay-your-own-way. We can predict with 100% certainty that if you order food, you will need to pay for it.
Please be advised: Unfortunately, space is very limited at these community events and we can not always accept everyone we would like to. If you are not accepted to this event, please keep applying! We appreciate your application tremendously and we are looking forward to seeing you at a future event very soon!
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