How secure are Australia’s fossil fuel revenues?

​Current climate and economic policies suggest that Australia is banking on long-term fossil fuel export revenues to underpin its economy. This strategy creates a profound planning risk: what happens if global demand for Australia's fossil fuel exports declines faster than domestic policy assumes? 

​This session challenges the assumption that fossil fuel exports are a guaranteed long-term revenue source for Australia. It examines pathways to manage this economic risk and explores how the transition could become a launchpad for economic renewal – driving new sources of public revenue, industrial growth and long-term prosperity. 

​The roundtable brings together economic think tank The Superpower Institute (TSI) and climate modelling consultancy Climate Resource to examine the economic and environmental crossroads Australia now faces, and the policy rethink required to navigate it. 

​The discussion will examine TSI’s proposed Polluter Pays Levy (PPL) and Fair Share Levy (FSL) on Australia’s gas profits as mechanisms to finance the transition and support households, alongside Climate Resource’s analysis of how fossil fuel demand may evolve under Paris-aligned warming pathways. 

​Together, the session asks a critical question for Australia’s future: how do we move from dependence on fossil fuel export revenue to an economy that is resilient, investable and aligned with the realities of a decarbonising world?