AI 2040 & Its Critics — Chicago AI Safety August Coffee Meetup

​What will AI actually look like in 2040 — and who gets to decide?

​This month we're reading two pieces in conversation with each other:

• ​AI 2040 — the new scenario from Daniel Kokotajlo and the AI Futures Project (the team behind AI 2027). It lays out "Plan A": an international agreement to slow the race to superintelligence and buy the world time to get it right. https://ai-2040.com/

• ​Selective Optimism — Richard Ngo's critique, published alongside the scenario at the team's own invitation. He pushes back on its blend of forecast and prescription, its US–China race assumptions, and the stubborn gap between AI benchmarks and real-world impact. https://www.mindthefuture.info/p/selective-optimism-a-critique-of

​We'll use the debate as a jumping-off point for bigger questions:

​How should we read AI forecasts — as predictions, plans, or persuasion? What makes a scenario useful?

​And how do we orient ourselves — and help others orient — in a decade moving this fast?

​Skimming either piece is plenty of prep, and newcomers are always welcome.

​Come for the conversation, stay for the coffee.