Thinking Clearly About Impact: Marginal, Counterfactual & Moral Uncertainty
Many high‑impact decisions depend on subtle reasoning tools.
In this session we explore:
Marginal vs average impact
Counterfactual thinking (“What happens if I don’t act?”)
Expected value reasoning
Moral uncertainty and how to act under normative disagreement
Common cognitive biases affecting cause prioritisation
This session provides epistemic guardrails for evaluating bold claims — including those discussed earlier in the seminar.
Suggested Readings (30–45 min total max)
Counterfactual impact & replaceability — 80,000 Hours
Expected value: how can we make a difference when we’re uncertain what’s true? — 80,000 Hours
Moral uncertainty — 80,000 Hours
Why being open to changing our minds is especially important right now — 80,000 Hours
Post‑Session Extra Depth
Moral uncertainty — Macaskill, Bykvist, Ord
Scout Mindest — Julia Galef
Rationality — Steven Pinker
Superforecaster — Philip Tetlock